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[post_content] => By Kevin Oleszewski CFP®, MST, EA, Senior Wealth Planner
Multiple retirement savings vehicles are available but having options can be overwhelming. Each option comes with different rules leading to a variance of outcomes in the short-term and long-term. It’s not that dissimilar to choosing what to eat. There are options which are satisfying in the short-term but may necessitate a more vigorous workout later to compensate. Other menu options might be less satisfying immediately but reduce the need to work out as intensely. Similar to how different foods affect the way the body is fueled, retirement contribution choices affect the fuel for retirement. How you save is just as important as how much you save.
Traditional IRA vs. Roth IRA
One example of two similar, yet very different, retirement saving vehicles are Traditional IRAs and Roth IRAs. Both are Individual Retirement Accounts meaning the account is opened and funded by the worker and are tax-advantaged accounts designed for retirement savings. Certain other types of retirement accounts are sponsored by employers and can be funded with both worker and employer contributions. Traditional and Roth IRAs can be distinguished by their tax treatment. So how do they differ and how does each fuel retirement?
Traditional IRA
The Traditional IRA is what usually comes to mind when hearing about an IRA. Often, it’s called a simple IRA, whereas a Roth IRA goes by its full name or Roth for short. The features commonly associated with an IRA include tax-deductible contributions and tax-deferred growth. Because Traditional IRA contributions are made during income-earning years for a time when earned income ends or is reduced (and tax liabilities are frequently lower), the IRA can be a nice way to reduce the current income tax liability while also targeting retirement saving goals.
Traditional IRAs provide tax benefits at the point of contribution for those within the income limits for qualification of a tax deduction. Whether an employer-sponsored retirement plan is offered affects the income limits for contribution deductibility. In 2023, for example, the Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) limits are as follows:
| Single / Head of Household | Married Filing Jointly | Married Filing Separately | |
| No Employer Retirement Plan | No Limit | Phase Out $218,000 - $228,000 No Limit if spouse is not covered by a plan | Phase Out $1 - $10,000 No Limit if spouse is not covered by a plan |
| Employer Retirement Plan | Phase Out $73,000 - $83,000 | Phase Out $116,000 - $136,000 | Phase Out $1 - $10,000 |
| Single / Head of Household | Married Filing Jointly | Married Filing Separately |
| Phase Out $138,000 - $153,000 | Phase Out $218,000 - $228,000 | Phase Out $1 - $10,000 |
This article is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information on the subjects covered. It is not, however, intended to provide specific legal, tax, or other professional advice. For specific professional assistance, the services of an appropriate professional should be sought.
[post_title] => Should I Open a Traditional or Roth IRA? [post_excerpt] => Multiple retirement savings vehicles are available but having options can be overwhelming. Each option comes with different rules leading to a variance of outcomes in the short-term and long-term. It’s not that dissimilar to choosing what to eat. [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => should-you-invest-in-a-roth-or-traditional-ira [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2023-02-13 08:25:05 [post_modified_gmt] => 2023-02-13 14:25:05 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.carsonwealth.com/?p=17967 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => post [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [1] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 77450 [post_author] => 90034 [post_date] => 2023-01-25 13:02:37 [post_date_gmt] => 2023-01-25 19:02:37 [post_content] => At long last, The Carson Investment Research team is proud to officially release our 2023 Market and Economic Outlook, aptly titled Outlook ’23: The Edge of Normal. You can download the whitepaper here. As you are all painfully aware, 2022 wasn’t pretty for investors – it was the first year to ever see both stocks and bonds down 10% or more. Higher-than-expected inflation was the theme of 2022, surging to the highest level since 1981. Add an aggressive Federal Reserve and an unfortunate war in Ukraine, and the result was a very poor year for investors and growing uncertainty for the U.S. and global economies. A bleak year, no doubt, but where do we go from here? We in the Carson Research team believe there are many potential reasons to be optimistic about the year ahead.
For example, Inflation already started to pull back in the second half of 2022, and 2023 may actually be disinflationary, with several factors that drove inflation higher last year reversing this year.
This could allow the Fed to slow down on the aggressive policy stance, and although it won’t be easy, we think there’s an above-average chance we can avoid a recession in 2023. Much like you don’t drive looking out of the rearview mirror, to look backward to predict what could be next isn’t wise. Housing and manufacturing could be headed to recessions, but the consumer remains the most important and largest part of the economy, and they are still very healthy.
Just because 2022 was a poor year for stocks and bonds doesn’t mean the same will be true for 2023 (past performance isn’t indicative of future results). Stocks and bonds could bounce back nicely, with the potential for stocks to lead the way higher and for bonds to begin meaningfully contributing to investors’ portfolios again.
We expect stocks to produce a total return of between 12% to 15% in 2023. We also expect a more normal year for bonds, with most of the return coming from yield. Our expectation is that the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index may produce a total return between 4% to 5% in 2023.
You can read the full Outlook ’23: The Edge of Normal here. We hope you find it useful! If you’d like to discuss the report further, or talk about what 2023 might mean for your finances, please reach out.
Schedule a conversation.
| Single / Head of Household | Married Filing Jointly | Married Filing Separately | |
| No Employer Retirement Plan | No Limit | Phase Out $218,000 - $228,000 No Limit if spouse is not covered by a plan | Phase Out $1 - $10,000 No Limit if spouse is not covered by a plan |
| Employer Retirement Plan | Phase Out $73,000 - $83,000 | Phase Out $116,000 - $136,000 | Phase Out $1 - $10,000 |
| Single / Head of Household | Married Filing Jointly | Married Filing Separately |
| Phase Out $138,000 - $153,000 | Phase Out $218,000 - $228,000 | Phase Out $1 - $10,000 |
This article is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information on the subjects covered. It is not, however, intended to provide specific legal, tax, or other professional advice. For specific professional assistance, the services of an appropriate professional should be sought.
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[post_content] => The following topics are important to keep in mind as you navigate the various individual and employer-sponsored plans that may be available to you.
Download the checklist today to get started.
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[post_content] => Tax planning takes into account the larger picture of your investments, assets, estate strategy and other parts of life to protect your finances over decades – not just hope to do better than last year’s income tax return.
From your personal healthcare and retirement plans to working within changes to the tax code, you'll find tax planning opportunities that are easy to miss, but could save you thousands.
Download Guide
[post_title] => 10 Tax Planning Tips That Could Reduce Your Taxes
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[post_content] => After multiple attempts at retirement legislation in 2022, the SECURE 2.0 Act has passed, with arguably more impactful reform than its predecessor, the SECURE Act of 2019.
Download the checklist today to get started.
[post_title] => The Complete Guide to the SECURE 2.0 Act
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[post_content] => Get ready to tackle 2023 with this month-by-month financial task list. We've also included important dates so you won't miss key deadlines.
Download the checklist today to get started.
[post_title] => 2023 Calendar: Key Tasks & Financial Dates
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[post_content] => Change happens. And whether we carefully plan for these changes, or we are taken by surprise by change, it's how we react to those changes that help dictate if they will ultimately be to our advantage. Whether it's a sudden inheritance, or a divorce settlement that is higher than anticipated, deciding what to do with an unexpected sum of money should happen after emotions have been processed.
Download the checklist today to get started.
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[post_date] => 2023-02-13 09:19:44
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[post_content] => It has been a great start to 2023 for stocks. We continue to expect higher prices this year, but we don’t anticipate they’ll happen in a straight line. February is sometimes known as a hangover month, and we wouldn’t be too surprised if stocks had a small break during this historically troublesome period.
Putting the Tech Layoffs in Perspective
It’s hard to get away from all the headlines about layoffs in the technology sector. Most recently, Yahoo announced it was laying off 20% of its workforce, about 1,600 people.
The firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. tracks layoff announcements, and its most recent report was titled “Jan ’23 Recession or Correction?”. The firm reported that the tech sector announced cuts of 41,829 in January, which amounted to 41% of all announced layoffs. That was the second highest for the sector on record and represented a massive 158% increase over the 16,193 announced in December. Contrast that to January 2022, when there were just 72 announced layoffs in the sector.
Between November 2021 and January 2022, tech sector layoff announcements have totaled 110,793.
Tech Went on a Hiring Spree Over the Last Decade
We reviewed employment in 25 top technology firms that represent about 25% of the S&P 500 index. Total employment at these firms grew at a torrid 10% annual pace between 2015 and 2019. That pace surged after the pandemic hit. By the end of 2022, employment at these firms was 9% above the already-hot pre-pandemic trend! That translates to about 345,000 more jobs than would have been expected if hiring remained on trend.
Here’s a look at the top four: Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta.
Perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising that these companies are now retrenching.
A Sharp Contrast to the Rest of the Economy
The rapid growth rate of employment across the 25 tech firms we reviewed contrasted with the annual job creation pace of 1.6% across the entire economy (which is not terribly shabby) during that period.
Then the pandemic hit, and the economy saw massive job losses even as tech companies boosted hiring even more. It’s important to note the last two years were amongst the best on record with respect to economy-wide job creation, with 7.3 million net jobs created in 2021 and 4.8 million in 2022.
Yet, employment remains 3% below the pre-pandemic trend. That translates to 4.5 million fewer jobs than would have been expected if the pandemic hadn’t hit.
Layoffs are Common, Even When Hiring is Strong
The tech sector looms so large in our minds, which is why tech layoff announcements make headlines and prompt renewed recession fears. However, layoffs number more than a million each month across the entire economy. Just in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 1.47 million layoffs. Across 2022, employers laid off about 17 million workers!
At the same time, the BLS estimated net employment rose by 4.8 million in 2022, the second-best year on record for job creation since 1940.
So, keep in mind that when companies announce layoffs, they’re not indicating whether these are “net,” as in whether these layoffs are net of other hiring or whether they’ve frozen hiring altogether.
The good news is the employment market looks really strong even as the tech sector reverses its recent hiring spree.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.
Compliance Case # 01656477
[post_title] => Market Commentary: A February Hangover
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[post_date] => 2023-02-06 10:37:47
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[post_content] => As poor as last year was for investors, 2023 has fortunately been a near mirror image. Stocks and bonds have both made solid gains to kick off the new year. The economy is in better shape than most expected, and overall inflation is also coming down, making a very nice combo.
The Labor Market is Defying Recession Forecasts
Let’s keep it simple: The economy created 517,000 jobs in January, well above expectations for a slowdown to 175,000.
The unemployment rate is 3.4%, the lowest level since May 1969.
It’s like the labor market, i.e., America’s employers, are on a mission to upend forecasts of a recession in 2023.
Also, revisions suggest payroll growth was stronger than we thought in 2022. The Bureau of Labor Statistics now says the economy created 4.8 million jobs in 2022, as opposed to the previous estimate of 4.5 million.
Forget recessions and landings; these numbers suggest an employment boom!
Strong Numbers Under the Hood
The data corroborate what we’ve been seeing in leading employment indicators, such as weekly initial claims for unemployment, which fell to the lowest level in nine months last week. January data typically tend to be quite noisy, due to seasonal effects. But even accounting for that, let’s not miss the big picture, which is that the labor market is very resilient, if not outright on fire.
The huge payroll gain in January was not due to outsized gains in one sector either. Cyclical sectors, such as manufacturing, construction, and wholesale/retail trade services, all added a total of 85,000 jobs. That contradicts the narrative of a significant slowdown in these areas.
Meanwhile, the service industry is growing rapidly. Americans are spending, and employers are responding, including by adding 113,000 net jobs across accommodation, restaurants, and bars.
Information processing, which includes technology and utilities, were the only sectors that saw job losses, and not many.
What Does This Mean for Monetary Policy?
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 0.25% last week, taking the federal funds rate to the 4.50-4.75% range. This is the slowest pace of increases since last March and a welcome downshift after the aggressive pace last year.
Fed officials also said ongoing interest rate increases will be appropriate to return inflation to their 2% target over time, suggesting they’re not done with rate increases yet. But the extent of future increases will take the totality of rate hikes so far plus incoming data, which indicates they are close to peak rate, perhaps around 5%.
Mainly, the Fed is waiting to see disinflation in the “core services inflation, ex housing” category. This is closely tied to wage growth, and there’s good news on that front. Wage growth is decelerating. The employment cost index, which is perhaps the most stable measure of wage growth, showed a sharp deceleration in the fourth quarter, corroborating other measures.
The best news is that wage growth is slowing even as the unemployment rate is at 50+ year lows. This is not what textbook theory or forecasters would predict. But we’ll take reality over that. And Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting suggest the Fed might be inclined to do the same. In other words, they don’t need to be convinced that inflation is coming down and will remain low only if the unemployment rate surges. They just need to see the data, i.e., continued deceleration in wage growth, and disinflation in core services ex housing.
Of course, stronger economic growth means the Fed is likely to keep interest rates higher for longer, which is contrary to market expectations of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. But we believe the economy is strong enough to handle higher rates currently.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.
Compliance Case # 01649284
[post_title] => Market Commentary: More Positive Signs
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[post_date] => 2023-01-30 11:11:29
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[post_content] => Last week the stock market rally continued, with various sectors showing renewed strength. This time a year ago, defensive areas, such as utilities, consumer staples, and health care, were leading. That was a warning sign, and it sure turned out something was wrong. Today small-caps, cyclicals, industrials, and technology are leading. These are more risk-on areas and their strong performance is another sign of underlying health.
We wouldn’t suggest blindly investing based on January’s performance, but the returns provide another clue that conditions have changed and higher stock prices in 2023 could be quite likely.
More Strong Economic Data
The latest GDP growth numbers for the fourth quarter of 2022 came in at 2.9% quarter-over-quarter (annualized rate), which was higher than expectations for a 2.6% reading. This is only slightly below the third quarter growth rate of 3.2%. The first two quarters of last year saw negative growth, so this is a nice bounce back.
Over the full year, GDP growth was up just 1% compared to the end of 2021. But this hides the fact that economic growth picked up in the second half of 2022. However, the first-half slowdown leaves the economy about 2.5% below its pre-pandemic trend.
The big picture: The economy is more than 5% higher than it was at the end of 2019, which shows how strong the recovery has been despite the early slowdown in 2022. The employment data corroborate this as well.
Details Matter
GDP is measured as:
GDP = Consumption (68%) + Investment (18%) + Government Spending (17%) + Net Exports (-3%)
Note that net exports are exports minus imports, and since the U.S. imports more than it exports, net exports tend to be a drag.
The table below shows how the various components contributed to GDP growth in the third and fourth quarters. Consumption contributed close to the same amount in both quarters. But in the third quarter the other big driver of GDP growth was net exports, whereas in the fourth quarter it was “change in private inventories.” These are the two most volatile elements of GDP, which is why it helps to look under the hood.
The details also help us to consider how the markets and economy will behave in 2023. For that let’s start with the most important category — consumption, which makes up just under 70% of the economy.
Consumption Stays Solid, Even as Services Normalize
Consumption barely slowed from the third quarter, but there were important differences. Services consumption eased, rising 2.6% in the fourth quarter compared to 3.7% in the third. But that 2.6% pace is well above the 2015-2019 average of 1.9%.
The good news is goods spending picked up in the fourth quarter and offset some of the services slowdown. This was almost entirely due to increased auto sales, gas, and grocery purchases — the latter two thanks to lower prices. This is important because we believe this trend will continue into early 2023, especially with auto sales and production picking up. Further good news: Consumers have more money in their pockets due to falling inflation, which will be a tailwind for consumption.
Housing Slowed, Thanks to the Fed
The Fed’s aggressive rate hikes had barely any impact on consumption last year. They did have an impact on investment, specifically residential investment, i.e., housing. Higher interest rates led to higher mortgage rates, and that led to a crash in housing activity. Housing pulled economic growth down by about 1.3-1.4 percentage points in the third and fourth quarters. Across 2022, residential investment fell 11%, which is the largest drop since 2009 when it fell 22%.
The good news is housing data appear less bad. In fact, mortgage activity has even picked up recently with rates pulling back from peak levels. So, there is sound reason to think housing will be less of a drag in 2023.
Nonresidential investment also slowed, which is concerning because it indicates businesses are investing less. However, it turns out the pullback in the fourth quarter was due to businesses spending less on communications equipment, which may simply be a reversal of spending that occurred after the pandemic hit when employees had to shift to their homes.
Government Spending No Longer a Drag
Investors forget that government spending makes up about 17% of the economy, and it matters. Over the last two quarters, government spending has picked up, reversing the drag from the prior five quarters. This has helped offset some of the pullback in private investment. It also is in sharp contrast to what happened after the 2008-2009 recession, when government spending was slashed and remained a drag on GDP growth all the way through 2014.
Government spending should continue to add to GDP growth in 2023. Congress passed some big spending bills over the past year and half: a $1 trillion infrastructure bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, and a $1.7 trillion government budget, which increased spending significantly. The money will really start to flow into the economy in 2023.
Still No Sign of a Recession
As we wrote in our recently released 2023 outlook, we don’t expect a recession in 2023, and the latest data corroborate that story.
Our reasoning is simple: Inflation is slowing, and if employment and incomes hold up (as they seem to be doing), real incomes will rise. Considering goods consumption is likely to recover on the back of vehicle purchases, we’re expecting consumption to remain solid.
Beyond that, housing should be less of a drag in 2023, especially as the Fed eases rate hikes, which looks likely to happen. So, the peak negative impact of aggressive rate hikes may be behind us.
Non-residential investment, especially in structures and equipment, may remain weak. However, recovering auto production, and even aircraft orders, should help U.S. manufacturing. That will be enhanced as the global economy starts to strengthen later in 2023, which should also help exports.
GDP growth data may be volatile due to unpredictable inventories and net exports, as we saw in 2022. But the underlying message is there still is no sign of a recession.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.
Compliance Case # 01640562
[post_title] => Market Commentary: As Goes January, So Goes the Year
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[post_date] => 2023-01-23 10:25:42
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[post_content] => Stocks sold off early in the week on disappointing retail sales and industrial production numbers, but they staged a nice bounce on Friday to close out the week. Although some recent data has been disappointing, inflation data continues to show fast improvement, with producer-level inflation coming in lower than expected last week. Additionally, prices-paid components of regional surveys and supply chain data continues to quickly improve. All this matters, as lower inflation opens the door for the Fed to end its aggressive rate-hiking regime (more on this below).
Good News for Rental Inflation
The Carson Investment Research Team just released its 2023 outlook, which we titled “The Edge of Normal.” The big theme for 2022 was higher-than-expected inflation, which surged to the highest level seen since 1981. This resulted in the Federal Reserve embarking on its most aggressive rate-hike cycle in 40 years, which led to an ugly 2022 for investors, with stocks and bonds falling more than 10%.
However, we are optimistic about 2023, mostly because we believe this year may be disinflationary, with several factors that drove inflation higher last year reversing. Amongst the three major drivers of lower inflation in 2023:
On a year-over-year basis, market rents peaked at 18% at the end of December 2021. The pace was down to under 4% as of last month. Now, as we have discussed in the past, official shelter inflation data is not going to capture this deceleration for another 8-10 months (see here and here). That is because private data reviews only market rents as related to new leases. But renters do not renew their leases every month. So official data considers both existing and new leases, which means there is a lag. On top of that, official data also averages the numbers over several months to smooth them out.
But there is even better news on the horizon for shelter inflation.
More Rental Supply is Coming
The housing data looks awful, thanks to activity cratering amid the surge in mortgage rates. However, this has mostly been concentrated in the single-family housing segment. Dynamics within the multi-family sector have been markedly different.
Multi-family units under construction are well outpacing completions and are currently at their highest level since 1973. Typically, construction outpacing completions would be a sign of over-building, as in the mid-2000s amid the housing bubble. This time around, it is due to supply-chain issues and labor shortages. But these are improving.
That means a lot more rental units will come onto the market, perhaps by late 2023 and early 2024. We believe that will put even more downward pressure on rental prices.
Of course, all of this is going to take a while to show up in the official data, but it further strengthens our view that disinflation is coming, with the largest component of the CPI basket, i.e., shelter, driving that downtrend in late 2023 and even into 2024.
Critically, the timing will also likely coincide with a period when the impact of lower goods prices begins to wear off (barring any unexpected shocks). And with shelter inflation on the decline, the Fed will be less likely to argue that disinflationary trends are “transitory.”
As a result, the Fed could start to cut rates in response, although this is unlikely until the very end of 2023, if not early 2024 — unless the economy plunges into recession. But that is not our base case currently, for all the reasons we discuss in our outlook.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.
Sonu Varghese and Ryan Detrick are non-registered associates of Cetera Advisor Networks.
Compliance Case # 01632615
[post_title] => Market Commentary: New Market Highs are Possible in 2023
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[post_content] => The December payroll report was yet another upside surprise. Monthly payrolls rose by 223,000, above expectations for a 200,000 gain. As Fed Chair Jerome Powell has noted, the economy needs to create about 100,000 jobs a month to keep up with population growth. That’s less than half the current pace.
The good news from the report is hourly wages rose less than expected. Hourly wages were up only 0.3%, compared with a huge initial 0.6% jump the previous month. The other bit of good news is November’s initial 0.6% rise was revised down to 0.4%. This matters because the Fed needs to see signs that wage growth is slowing, which are finally appearing. Is there farther to go? Or course. But this lowered trend is quite welcome.
The jobs report had a Goldilocks feel to it. Just like the fairytale, the data was not too hot nor too cold. The economy creating more than 200,000 jobs but hourly wages slowing down is a pretty good combo at this stage of the cycle.
A Bad December
Many market watchers have said the stock market’s poor performance in December could be a warning sign. Historically, the last month of the year is quite strong for stocks. But as with much of last year, that wasn’t the case in 2022. In the end, the S&P 500 fell 5.9%, marking one of the worst Decembers ever and the worst since 2018. So, how worried should investors be?
It turns out that very poor final months of the year haven’t typically been the warning signs we might expect. December 2018 for instance was the worst December ever for stocks, and they went on to gain nearly 30% in 2019. In fact, the last four times the S&P 500 fell 4% or more in December, the following years were up three times for gains of 38%, 26%, and 29%. There are many worries out there, but a big drop in December apparently shouldn’t be one of them.
Santa Came to Town
Let’s end on some good news.
Santa Claus did come to town, as the seven days that encompass the well-known Santa Claus rally were indeed higher. Although many people think the Santa Claus rally takes place during the whole month of December, in reality it is the final five days of the year and first two days of the new year. These seven days sported a gain of 0.8%, the seventh consecutive year stocks were higher during this historically strong period.
These seven days are higher about 80% of the time, and no period is more likely to be positive. At Carson, we take note when the rally does not occur as this typically is a warning sign, such as it was in 2000 and 2008.
The markets present many worries, but the large drop in December and the Santa Claus rally should not be among them.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.
Compliance Case # 01616683
[post_title] => Market Commentary: The Goldilocks Jobs Report
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[post_content] => It has been a great start to 2023 for stocks. We continue to expect higher prices this year, but we don’t anticipate they’ll happen in a straight line. February is sometimes known as a hangover month, and we wouldn’t be too surprised if stocks had a small break during this historically troublesome period.
Putting the Tech Layoffs in Perspective
It’s hard to get away from all the headlines about layoffs in the technology sector. Most recently, Yahoo announced it was laying off 20% of its workforce, about 1,600 people.
The firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. tracks layoff announcements, and its most recent report was titled “Jan ’23 Recession or Correction?”. The firm reported that the tech sector announced cuts of 41,829 in January, which amounted to 41% of all announced layoffs. That was the second highest for the sector on record and represented a massive 158% increase over the 16,193 announced in December. Contrast that to January 2022, when there were just 72 announced layoffs in the sector.
Between November 2021 and January 2022, tech sector layoff announcements have totaled 110,793.
Tech Went on a Hiring Spree Over the Last Decade
We reviewed employment in 25 top technology firms that represent about 25% of the S&P 500 index. Total employment at these firms grew at a torrid 10% annual pace between 2015 and 2019. That pace surged after the pandemic hit. By the end of 2022, employment at these firms was 9% above the already-hot pre-pandemic trend! That translates to about 345,000 more jobs than would have been expected if hiring remained on trend.
Here’s a look at the top four: Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta.
Perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising that these companies are now retrenching.
A Sharp Contrast to the Rest of the Economy
The rapid growth rate of employment across the 25 tech firms we reviewed contrasted with the annual job creation pace of 1.6% across the entire economy (which is not terribly shabby) during that period.
Then the pandemic hit, and the economy saw massive job losses even as tech companies boosted hiring even more. It’s important to note the last two years were amongst the best on record with respect to economy-wide job creation, with 7.3 million net jobs created in 2021 and 4.8 million in 2022.
Yet, employment remains 3% below the pre-pandemic trend. That translates to 4.5 million fewer jobs than would have been expected if the pandemic hadn’t hit.
Layoffs are Common, Even When Hiring is Strong
The tech sector looms so large in our minds, which is why tech layoff announcements make headlines and prompt renewed recession fears. However, layoffs number more than a million each month across the entire economy. Just in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 1.47 million layoffs. Across 2022, employers laid off about 17 million workers!
At the same time, the BLS estimated net employment rose by 4.8 million in 2022, the second-best year on record for job creation since 1940.
So, keep in mind that when companies announce layoffs, they’re not indicating whether these are “net,” as in whether these layoffs are net of other hiring or whether they’ve frozen hiring altogether.
The good news is the employment market looks really strong even as the tech sector reverses its recent hiring spree.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.
Compliance Case # 01656477
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[post_content] => Tax season is upon us! Watch our webinar: Tips from a Tax Preparer – Best Practices for the Upcoming Tax Season with Carson Group’s Director of Tax Planning Mike Valenti and Senior Wealth Planner Tom Fridrich, now available on-demand.
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[post_content] => After a year riddled with market volatility, it’s a good idea to get some market outlook insights from a respected thought leader, Carson Group’s Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.
Watch Detrick’s Carson's 2023 Market Outlook webinar, now available on-demand.
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[post_content] => By Erin Wood, Senior Vice President, Financial Planning and Advanced Solutions
Just a few years ago, Rose retired with a decent-sized 401(k). With some careful budgeting and a part-time job, her retirement finances were on track. Rose was looking forward to traveling, reigniting her passion for photography and spending time with her son and her grandkids.
The pandemic changed everything. Her son contracted COVID-19 in the early days of the pandemic. His health deteriorated quickly and he died at only 35 years old. He didn’t have life insurance. A gig worker without a 401(k), he had very minimal retirement savings.
Rose’s grandchildren, ages 2 and 6, joined the more than 140,000 U.S. children under the age of 18 who lost their primary or secondary caregiver due to the pandemic from April 2020 through June 2021. That’s approximately one out of every 450 children under age 18 in the United States.
Rose’s ex-daughter-in-law battles drug addiction and had lost custody of the kids during the divorce, so Rose became the children’s primary caregiver. She quickly discovered that caring for young children as an older adult is more physically challenging than when she raised her son, so she made the difficult decision to leave her part-time job to have the energy to care for her active grandchildren. She wants to do everything for these kids who have lost so much — but it puts her financial security at risk.
Sadly, she is far from alone.
Read the full article
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[post_content] => Karn Couzens & Associates, Inc., a full-service financial planning and wealth management firm with offices in Farmington and Wallingford, Conn. announced today that it is joining Carson Wealth. The 10-person team is led by managing directors and wealth advisors, Robert A. Karn, JD, LLM, CFP® and Jeffrey P. Couzens, CFP® and has $800 million in assets under advisement.
“There were a lot of reasons why we chose to partner with Carson,” explains Robert Karn. “But one of the biggest reasons was the industry-leading technology available to us as Carson Wealth and what that will enable us to do for our clients. These tools will help streamline our clients’ digital experience, making it easier for them to visualize their financial plan, access their investments and communicate with our team.”
Robert Karn has been helping high-net-worth families and businesses discover and plan for their financial goals for nearly 40 years. Karn began his career in financial services when he and wealth advisor, Jim Couzens opened Karn Couzens & Associates in 1987.
Jeffrey Couzens joined Karn Couzens & Associates, Inc. in 1997, following in his father, Jim’s footsteps.
“Our goal has always been to deliver maximum value to our clients and provide them with a ‘best-in-class’ experience,” said Jeffrey Couzens. “Aligning with a trusted partner like Carson will allow us more time to foster true partnerships with our clients and help them live their best lives by developing plans to help them prioritize and achieve their financial goals.”
“Bob and Jeffrey have built a tremendous multigenerational family business, dedicated to serving the greater Hartford area,” said Ron Carson, founder and CEO of Carson Group. “As part of the Carson Wealth team, they have access to resources to secure their firm’s legacy and provide so much more for their clients – comprehensive financial planning, trust services, insurance solutions, tax strategy and a dedicated investment management team.”
“Carson’s extensive network gives us a succession plan that supports our existing team and reinforces the work we’re committed to doing for our clients,” added Karn. “We believe we are now even better positioned to look toward the future with renewed confidence.”
Karn Couzens & Associates, LLC, will be the 35th Carson Wealth branded office in the U.S.
Carson currently manages $20 billion in assets and serves more than 40,000 families through its advisory network, including 35 Carson Wealth offices. For more information, visit www.carsonwealth.com.
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[post_date] => 2022-03-25 14:07:37
[post_date_gmt] => 2022-03-25 19:07:37
[post_content] => By: Erin Wood, CFP®, CRPC®, FBS®, Senior Vice President, Financial Planning, Carson Group
Laura and Caroline are in their late 50s. Friends since meeting at a playgroup for their toddlers, both were in long-term, seemingly happy marriages. Laura married her high school sweetheart right after they graduated from college and worked as an RN while her husband attended medical school. When their first child was born, Laura decided to become a stay-at-home parent. She just celebrated sending her last child off to college and was looking forward to enjoying an empty nest with her husband.
Already established in her career as an accountant for a large insurance firm, Caroline married a bit later, at 33. Today, she’s a financial controller for the same firm. Her spouse owns his own landscaping business. Caroline is the high-wage earner in the family.
Unfortunately, both women are now surprised to be facing a “gray” divorce: a divorce involving couples in their 50s or older. Each will need to make some tough choices as they deal with the emotional devastation of unraveling a long-term marriage. Although my focus as a financial planner is to help my clients find their financial footing during and after divorce, I also encourage clients to build a strong network of family and friends as well as a therapist or clergy person to offer critical emotional support during this time.
Read full article on Kiplinger.com
[post_title] => Emerging Financially Healthy After a Gray Divorce
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[post_content] => Carson Wealth in Napa, California, announced that wealth advisor, Tom Commander and senior planner, Tim McNamara are joining Kent Kuhlmann’s team and adding to the firm’s expanding footprint in Northern California.
The Carson Wealth team in Napa serves affluent families, business owners, executives and institutions in Napa, Sonoma, San Jose and surrounding areas. The firm currently manages more than $100 million in assets for families and businesses in 32 states.
“The decision to join Carson Wealth was an easy one,” said Tom Commander, wealth advisor. “This strategic move gives me the opportunity to provide clients with the support of Carson Wealth’s full roster of highly specialized professionals offering services ranging from estate planning, investment management and financial planning.”
Before joining Carson Wealth, Commander worked as an investment advisor with Jacobson Wealth Management.
Commander joined the financial services profession after serving 29 years in law enforcement with the Napa Sheriff’s Office. While working for Napa County, Commander served as a member of Napa County’s Deferred Compensation Board for 12 years. As a board member and chair, he discovered he had a passion and interest in the financial services industry and decided to pursue a career as a financial professional.
Commander holds a life, health and accident insurance license for the state of California.
Senior planner, Tim McNamara, a 30-year financial services veteran, will also be joining Carson Wealth. McNamara previously owned and operated his own consultancy practice and specialized in advising clients on estate, tax, business succession, charitable planning and real estate development needs.
“I have found that the needs of our ultra-high-net-worth investors are unique and require strategies tailored to their individual needs,” said McNamara. “Carson Wealth embraces a highly-customized approach and has invested heavily in systems that give clients the services they want. With this partnership, I now have access to industry-leading technology that will allow me to provide clients with planning solutions that are right for them.”
Carson currently manages more than $20 billion in assets and serves more than 40,000 families among its advisor network of 120 partner offices, including 35 Carson Wealth locations.
[post_title] => Tom Commander & Tim McNamara Join Carson Wealth’s Napa Office
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[post_date] => 2022-02-09 15:44:59
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[post_content] => Salt Lake City, Utah (Feb. 9, 2022) — Signal Wealth Advisors, a full-service financial planning and investment firm based in Salt Lake City, announced today that it is rebranding to Carson Wealth. The 14-person team, led by managing partners and wealth advisors Duane Toney CPA, PFS and Thom Hall CFP®, ChFC®, currently manages $250 million in assets.
Since joining Carson Partners in 2017, Signal Wealth has experienced tremendous growth and has been able to better serve its clients by having the backing of Carson’s industry-leading financial planning solutions.
“Carson’s industry-leading technology has helped streamline our clients’ digital experience, made it easier for them to visualize their financial plans, access their investments and communicate with our team,” said Duane Toney.
“By taking the next step to rebrand as a Carson Wealth office, we not only have an ownership interest in each other’s firms, but we are now better positioned to grow and add additional advisors to our team,” added Toney.
“By aligning ourselves with the Carson brand we have the peace of mind in our firm’s legacy,’ said Thom Hall. “We now have a strong succession plan in place for our clients and know they will continue to be cared for by our team for generations to come.”
"Additionally, Carson’s extensive network offers a robust succession solution that supports our existing team, anticipates client needs and reinforces the work we’re committed to doing for our clients. We believe we are now even better positioned to look toward the future with renewed confidence.”
Duane Toney started the business that later became Signal Wealth in 2002. Since then, Toney has helped affluent families, business owners, entrepreneurs and executives in the Salt Lake City area focus on investment management, tax minimization and wealth protection.
Thom Hall founded Thom K. Hall Financial Group in 2000 and combined forces with Signal Wealth in 2018. He has been advising clients on how to protect and manage wealth for over 25 years.
“Our decision to partner with Thom & Duane came from a mutual desire to serve their clients well, expand their resources and support and help them continue to grow,” said Ron Carson, CEO and founder of Carson Group. “We are proud to add them to our team and we look forward to growing our presence in Utah.”
As with other advisors who have affiliated and rebranded as Carson Wealth offices, Toney and Hall will maintain active majority ownership of the firm and will remain the strategic decision-makers for all business decisions and operations in the Salt Lake City office.
Carson currently manages $20 billion in assets and serves more than 40,000 families through its advisory network, including 35 Carson Wealth offices. For more information, visit www.carsonwealth.com.
About Carson Wealth
Founded in 1983, Carson Wealth is one of the fastest growing financial services firms in the country, serving clients through holistic financial planning, disciplined investment strategies and proactive, personal service.
Carson Wealth is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska, with the mission to be the most trusted for financial advice. For more information visit, www.carsonwealth.com.
Securities offered through Cetera Advisor Networks LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Cetera Advisor Networks is under separate ownership from any other named entity.
6955 S Union Park Center, Ste 250, Midvale, UT 84047
[post_title] => Signal Wealth Advisors Rebrands to Carson Wealth
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[post_date] => 2022-05-26 08:18:44
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[post_content] => By Erin Wood, Senior Vice President, Financial Planning and Advanced Solutions
Just a few years ago, Rose retired with a decent-sized 401(k). With some careful budgeting and a part-time job, her retirement finances were on track. Rose was looking forward to traveling, reigniting her passion for photography and spending time with her son and her grandkids.
The pandemic changed everything. Her son contracted COVID-19 in the early days of the pandemic. His health deteriorated quickly and he died at only 35 years old. He didn’t have life insurance. A gig worker without a 401(k), he had very minimal retirement savings.
Rose’s grandchildren, ages 2 and 6, joined the more than 140,000 U.S. children under the age of 18 who lost their primary or secondary caregiver due to the pandemic from April 2020 through June 2021. That’s approximately one out of every 450 children under age 18 in the United States.
Rose’s ex-daughter-in-law battles drug addiction and had lost custody of the kids during the divorce, so Rose became the children’s primary caregiver. She quickly discovered that caring for young children as an older adult is more physically challenging than when she raised her son, so she made the difficult decision to leave her part-time job to have the energy to care for her active grandchildren. She wants to do everything for these kids who have lost so much — but it puts her financial security at risk.
Sadly, she is far from alone.
Read the full article
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